AB S TRACT This study evaluates the performance of various classifiers in three distinct models: r esponse, r isk, and r esponse - r isk, concerning credit card mail campaigns and default prediction. In the r esponse model, the Extra Trees classifier demonstrates the highest recall level (79.1%), emphasizing its effectiveness in identifying potential responders to targeted credit card offers. Conversely, in the r isk model, the Random Forest classifier exhibits remarkable specificity of 84.1%, crucial for identifying customers least likely to default. Furthermore, in the multi - class r esponse - r isk model, the Random Forest classifier achieve s the highest accuracy (83.2%), indicating its efficacy in discerning both potential responders to credit card mail campaign and low - risk credit card users . In this study, we optimized various performance metrics to solve a specific credit risk and mail responsiveness business problem.

Humans interpret safety not as a binary signal but as a continuous, context- and spatially-dependent notion of risk. While risk is subjective, humans form rational mental models that guide action selection in dynamic environments. This work proposes a framework for extracting implicit human risk models by introducing a novel, semantically-conditioned and spatially-varying parametrization of risk, supervised directly from safe human demonstration videos and VLM common sense. Notably, we define risk through a Bayesian formulation. The prior is furnished by a pretrained vision-language model. In order to encourage the risk estimate to be more human aligned, a likelihood function modulates the prior to produce a relative metric of risk. Specifically, the likelihood is a learned ViT that maps pretrained features, to pixel-aligned risk values. Our pipeline ingests RGB images and a query object string, producing pixel-dense risk images. These images that can then be used as value-predictors in robot planning tasks or be projected into 3D for use in conventional trajectory optimization to produce human-like motion. This learned mapping enables generalization to novel objects and contexts, and has the potential to scale to much larger training datasets. In particular, the Bayesian framework that is introduced enables fast adaptation of our model to additional observations or common sense rules. We demonstrate that our proposed framework produces contextual risk that aligns with human preferences. Additionally, we illustrate several downstream applications of the model; as a value learner for visuomotor planners or in conjunction with a classical trajectory optimization algorithm. Our results suggest that our framework is a significant step toward enabling autonomous systems to internalize human-like risk. Code and results can be found at https://riskbayesian.github.io/bayesian_risk/.

Joint Senior Corresponding Author: Michael Nercessian Email: michael.nercessian@berkeley.edu Abstract Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are indispensable for establishing the clinical value of medical artificial-intelligence (AI) tools, yet their high cost and long timelines hinder timely validation as new models emerge rapidly. Here, we propose BRIDGE, a data-reuse RCT design for AI-based risk models. AI risk models support a broad range of interventions, including screening, treatment selection, and clinical alerts. BRIDGE trials recycle participant-level data from completed trials of AI models when legacy and updated models make concordant predictions, thereby reducing the enrollment requirement for subsequent trials. We provide a practical checklist for investigators to assess whether reusing data from previous trials allows for valid causal inference and preserves type I error. Using real-world datasets across breast cancer, cardiovascular disease, and sepsis, we demonstrate concordance between successive AI models, with up to 64.8% overlap in top 5% high-risk cohorts. We then simulate a series of breast cancer screening studies, where our design reduced required enrollment by 46.6%--saving over US$2.8 million--while maintaining 80% power. By transforming trials into adaptive, modular studies, our proposed design makes Level I evidence generation feasible for every model iteration, thereby accelerating cost-effective translation of AI into routine care . Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) models have the potential to transform patient care by identifying high-risk individuals using high-dimensional data--such as imaging, electronic health records, or time-series data--to personalize screening, prevention, and treatment decisions across a range of diseases, including cancer and heart disease.

Improving automated vehicle software requires driving data rich in valuable road user interactions. In this paper, we propose a risk-based filtering approach that helps identify such valuable driving situations from large datasets. Specifically, we use a probabilistic risk model to detect high-risk situations. Our method stands out by considering a) first-order situations (where one vehicle directly influences another and induces risk) and b) second-order situations (where influence propagates through an intermediary vehicle). In experiments, we show that our approach effectively selects valuable driving situations in the Waymo Open Motion Dataset. Compared to the two baseline interaction metrics of Kalman difficulty and Tracks-To-Predict (TTP), our filtering approach identifies complex and complementary situations, enriching the quality in automated vehicle testing. The risk data is made open-source: https://github.com/HRI-EU/RiskBasedFiltering.

Breast cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Early detection is crucial for improving patient outcomes, yet the diagnostic process is often complex and prone to inconsistencies among pathologists. Computer-aided diagnostic approaches have significantly enhanced breast cancer detection, particularly in binary classification (benign vs. malignant). However, these methods face challenges in multiclass classification, leading to frequent mispredictions. In this work, we propose a novel adaptive learning approach for multiclass breast cancer classification using H&E-stained histopathology images. First, we introduce a misprediction risk analysis framework that quantifies and ranks the likelihood of an image being mislabeled by a classifier. This framework leverages an interpretable risk model that requires only a small number of labeled samples for training. Next, we present an adaptive learning strategy that fine-tunes classifiers based on the specific characteristics of a given dataset. This approach minimizes misprediction risk, allowing the classifier to adapt effectively to the target workload. We evaluate our proposed solutions on real benchmark datasets, demonstrating that our risk analysis framework more accurately identifies mispredictions compared to existing methods. Furthermore, our adaptive learning approach significantly improves the performance of state-of-the-art deep neural network classifiers.

The literature and multiple experts point to many potential risks from large language models (LLMs), but there are still very few direct measurements of the actual harms posed. AI risk assessment has so far focused on measuring the models' capabilities, but the capabilities of models are only indicators of risk, not measures of risk. Better modeling and quantification of AI risk scenarios can help bridge this disconnect and link the capabilities of LLMs to tangible real-world harm. This paper makes an early contribution to this field by demonstrating how existing AI benchmarks can be used to facilitate the creation of risk estimates. We describe the results of a pilot study in which experts use information from Cybench, an AI benchmark, to generate probability estimates. We show that the methodology seems promising for this purpose, while noting improvements that can be made to further strengthen its application in quantitative AI risk assessment. Figure 1: The performance of LLM benchmarks directly informs the probability estimates generated through expert elicitation. For example, the expert is informed that an LLM can solve the task'Unbreakable' in Cybench and uses this information to increase the probability of success for a malware creation step by 5%.

The emergence of the fifth generation (5G) technology has transformed mobile networks into multi-service environments, necessitating efficient network slicing to meet diverse Service Level Agreements (SLAs). SLA decomposition across multiple network domains, each potentially managed by different service providers, poses a significant challenge due to limited visibility into real-time underlying domain conditions. This paper introduces Risk-Aware Iterated Local Search (RAILS), a novel risk model-driven meta-heuristic framework designed to jointly address SLA decomposition and service provider selection in multi-domain networks. By integrating online risk modeling with iterated local search principles, RAILS effectively navigates the complex optimization landscape, utilizing historical feedback from domain controllers. We formulate the joint problem as a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) problem and prove its NP-hardness. Extensive simulations demonstrate that RAILS achieves near-optimal performance, offering an efficient, real-time solution for adaptive SLA management in modern multi-domain networks.

This paper addresses the problem of human-based driver support. Nowadays, driver support systems help users to operate safely in many driving situations. Nevertheless, these systems do not fully use the rich information that is available from sensing the human driver. In this paper, we therefore present a human-based risk model that uses driver information for improved driver support. In contrast to state of the art, our proposed risk model combines a) the current driver perception based on driver errors, such as the driver overlooking another vehicle (i.e., notice error), and b) driver personalization, such as the driver being defensive or confident. In extensive simulations of multiple interactive driving scenarios, we show that our novel human-based risk model achieves earlier warning times and reduced warning errors compared to a baseline risk model not using human driver information.

When a network slice spans multiple domains, each domain must uphold the End-to-End (E2E) Service Level Agreement (SLA) associated with the slice. This requires decomposing the E2E SLA into partial SLAs for each domain. In a two-level network slicing management system with an E2E orchestrator and local controllers, we propose an online learning-decomposition framework that dynamically updates risk models using recent feedback. This approach utilizes online gradient descent and FIFO memory buffers to enhance stability and robustness. Our empirical study shows the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art static methods, offering more accurate and resilient SLA decomposition under varying conditions and sparse data.

When data are right-censored, i.e. some outcomes are missing due to a limited period of observation, survival analysis can compute the "time to event". Multiple classes of outcomes lead to a classification variant: predicting the most likely event, known as competing risks, which has been less studied. To build a loss that estimates outcome probabilities for such settings, we introduce a strictly proper censoring-adjusted separable scoring rule that can be optimized on a subpart of the data because the evaluation is made independently of observations. It enables stochastic optimization for competing risks which we use to train gradient boosting trees. Compared to 11 state-of-the-art models, this model, MultiIncidence, performs best in estimating the probability of outcomes in survival and competing risks. It can predict at any time horizon and is much faster than existing alternatives.